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Conflicted On Twitter Heading Into Earnings

Conflicted On Twitter Heading Into Earnings
TL;DR: Twitter has a horrible execution history and negative surprises on the most recent earnings call, but company has real long term value that has yet to be unlocked. The bet here is that TWTR has run up based on pin action from SNAP, but fundamentals and peer comparison cloud the picture.
I read this post calling for a short on Twitter and it became a bit of a WSB ear worm. I generally agreed with OP's assessment, but he was a bit short on DD and most of my thoughts are based on biases against the company's horrible execution/monetization history and a general disdain for Jack Dorsey wanting to move to Africa for a year rather than focusing on the TWO companies that have made him a billionaire.
I thought about it, researched some short term puts (high premium as expected given recent run up into all time high today, earnings Thursday) and basically ATM puts are running $2.76 for $51's expiring Friday or $3.36 if I want to give myself the extra week (ELECTION MADNESS!) for an extra swing at the payoff.
My initial thought is that Twitter has run up with SNAP and PINS after SNAP crushed earnings. I had started to look at PINS for an earnings play but didn't get to it before SNAP sent them all (and FB) off to the races. With that said, Twitter has a history of disappointing and I'm not aware of anything they've done recently to better monetize the site. I also haven't done any DD on them in forever after getting stuck long a few times and having to wait a quarter or so twice for what should have been a short term trade.
So, thanks to OP Justaryns, here's some follow on DD. Now I'm more conflicted.
Financials.
Strong balance sheet. Company had $7.8 Billion cash on hand end of June, adding $1 Billion of that during the first six (crash/shutdown) months of the year. Only $831 Million of current liabilities and total debt is $4.1 Billion. Market Cap is less than 4x book value. No issues here.
Income statement is a bit more hokey. They took a major charge last quarter for a "non-cash tax deferred asset". That messed up a slow but steady growing trendline. How much so? Check the CNBC graphic:

2Q: Whoops
Also during the last quarter, Twitter had a massive hack where some moron tried to use the accounts of famous people to try and sell (Edit; The currency that we doth not speak its name). No word on which autist here did that. The problems continued into the last few weeks, when Twitter had a massive outage that the President blamed cited the Babylon Bee as Biden protection. That's more of a reminder that headline and political risk remains in all communication services stocks, and tomorrow we'll get a better reminder as the CEO's of Twitter, Facebook, and Microsoft testify before a Congress that hates them more than their own voters.
So Twitter has execution problems, political risk, and a CEO that is still trying to decide what he wants to be when he grows up. Yet it's had a massive run up as pin action from SNAP. Does it have further room to run? Chart comparisons suggest it could.

Relative Performance of SNAP, PINS, TWTR, and FB
This is where I get heartburn on the short. Over the past year, PINS and SNAP have had over a 150% return. FB, much more established and with a market cap 20 times that of Twitter, has still given a respectable 46% return. Twitter is up 73%, which is a lot...until you compare it to peers like SNAP and PINS.
Further, analysts are sour on Twitter, with 32 of 41 giving hold or underperform ratings, and a stock price 20% below current prices. I tend to consider them a contra-indicator, in that they move after sentiment does, usually not before.

CNBC analyst summary
So, I'm torn. If Dorsey can demonstrate he has finally decided to execute a business plan and fix the recurring technical/security issues, there's real value to unlock here. Short term....I'm probably willing to take a gamble that he hasn't, and buy a few puts. What say y'all?
Related Positions: 6 FB 275 Nov 20 calls. No positions yet on TWTR.
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Price increase drives 98% of Bitcoin holders into a state of profit.

Price increase drives 98% of Bitcoin holders into a state of profit.
by Mickael Mosse
The price of bitcoin jumped significantly on Wednesday after the payment processor Paypal announced cryptocurrency support. The jump in value has pushed a large number of bitcoin holders into a state of profit, according to Glassnode “percent of UTXOs in profit” statistics. Based on the current data, 98% of all bitcoin UTXOs are in a state of profit touching levels previously recorded three years ago in December 2017.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) closed at a high at $13,184 per coin on Wednesday, October 21 following the announcement from Paypal. During the evening trading sessions, the onchain research and analysis firm Glassnode tweeted about the number of bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) in profit. A UTXO refers to the amount of bitcoin someone holds that has not been spent and is simply stored in a bitcoin wallet.
“98% of all bitcoin UTXOs are currently in a state of profit,” Glassnode tweeted. “A level not seen since Dec 2017, and typical in previous BTC bull markets.”

https://preview.redd.it/1dtqk311dvu51.png?width=1450&format=png&auto=webp&s=67b10a88f9891ade45f459dcf03fc70bad23b5c9
Since then the price has dropped a hair but the price of bitcoin (BTC) is still up 4.3% over the last seven days. Long term holders have seen a 72.4% increase during the last 12 months, 34.9% during the last 90-days and 22% against the 30-day span. Glassnode’s onchain stats report, details that the subindex measuring investor “sentiment” increased ending the week “at 70 points.”
A number of crypto analysts and traders believe that bitcoin’s current price range is a key indicator for moving forward. Moreover, BTC’s dominance level, it’s market cap measured against all 7,000+ crypto assets, has risen to 63.2%. The senior financial analyst at Fxpro, Alex Kuptsikevich, believes bitcoin is testing crucial macro levels.
“At current levels, Bitcoin is testing cyclical highs,” Kuptsikevich wrote in a note to investors. “Since the beginning of 2018, it has not been able to gain a foothold at levels above $12,000. It is equally important that at new highs, indicators like the RSI are far from the overbought condition, indicating significant potential for further growth. Closing the week above $12,800 would be the highest level in two and a half years, opening a direct path of growth to the historic highs of $20,000 that we saw three years ago.”
Kuptsikevich added:
Bitcoin breaking through two round levels of $12k and $13k opens doors for further growth. The current price dynamics led the coin to re-test the peak of july 2019, which at that time was the highest point of the rally. Nowadays, purchases take place against the background of confidence that bitcoin has more and more supporters in the traditional financial world.
Eric Demuth, cofounder and CEO of Bitpanda believes that cryptocurrencies, in general, started to “establish themselves as a trusted asset class of the worldwide financial market such as gold and stocks.” Demuth thinks that the Paypal support announced on Wednesday is just the start, as he believes more large players will be joining the crypto party.
“2020 has shown that crypto is here to stay,” Demuth explained. “There has been a huge inflow of institutional capital as well as record numbers of new retail customers adopting cryptocurrencies. I am certain we will see more big players like Paypal joining the party in 2021.”
Read the article here:https://mickaelmosse.com/price-increase-drives-98-of-bitcoin-holders-into-a-state-of-profit/
And don't miss out on any bitcoin news, daily on the mickaelmosse.com app.
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I started my career in November and investing February 5th, 2020 - my strategy as a once peasant Mexican

My history investing in college and my first month investing in February:

Learned about miners and blockchain validation with a chemical engineering friend before the rally.

My Strategy now that I have income



My current market sentiment







CURRENT HOLDINGS (ordered by priority & checkup time):


GOOG & AMZN exposure through tech ETFs ::: priority FB
NVIDIA, AMD, Intel EXPOSURE through semiconductor ETFS ::: priority Texas Instruments
PAYPAL, MERCADO LIBRE, SQUARE exposure through fintech ETF ::: priority PayPal
Environmental Services exposure through Sanitation ETFS ::: priority Waste Management
Adobe and AutoDesk exposure through cloud software ETFs :: priority Adobe
Nintendo exposure through gaming ETFS :: priority Nintendo
Cisco exposure through cloud networking and edge computing ETFS Cicsco, Fastly, Cloudflare, etc
TELECOM networking ETFS :: priority TMobile
Manufacturing technology, industrial sectors, and robotics exposure to Fanuc, ABB, Siemens, Sherwin-Williams, VW, GM, Nissan, Toyota, Panasonic,
Healthcare services ETF :: priority Cigna
FB -- LONG
PAYPAL -- LONG
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS - LONG
MSFT -- LONG
APPLE -- LONG
ADOBE -- LONG
DISNEY - LONG
BITCOIN - LONG
TMOBILE - 2 YEARS
VISA -- 2 YEARS
JPM -- 2 YEARS
TWITTER -- 2 YEARS
SQUARE -- 1 YEAR
LYFT -- 1 YEAR
FASTLY -- QUARTERLY
CLOUDFLARE -- QUARTERLY
1LIFE MEDICAL -- QUARTERLY
FIVERR -- QUARTERLY
DRAFT KING -- QUARTERLY YEAR + CHICAGO POLITICS
GROUPON -- SPARE CHANGE JAR



EXCITED TO ACQUIRE

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Weekly Wrap 07/08

Market News
Stocks rose further with the S&P edging ever closer to all-time highs. Trump signed an executive order banning TikTok from operating in the US if not sold from their Chinese parent company, ByteDance. So far, Microsoft is the most likely candidate to buy the video-sharing app’s US operations, which has 100 million users. This has triggered uncertainty for market-leading tech stocks.
Gold prices once again hit new all time highs this week after breaking the $2,000 per ounce level for the first time ever. Bank of America Securities analysts predict further upside potential given the extensive quantitative easing being implemented across the globe. With the U.S Fed targeting aggressive inflation, this further buoys the price forecasts for the precious metal.
Bitcoin broke through its key resistance a week prior to gold. Since the breakout, it set highs of over $12,000 before selling off and finding support. Ethereum reached and tested the $400 level while Ripple also recorded significant gains. Overall there is significant upward momentum with sentiment strongly in favour of the bulls.
The Invictus Margin Lending (IML) Fund had a record breaking week with daily annualized returns peaking at 32.83%. Annualized returns for the week totaled 19.78% as demand for credit increased in parallel with the upward price momentum of the cryptoasset class.
Industry News
Market Indicators
Other News
submitted by Camaa to InvictusCapital [link] [comments]

Weekly Wrap 07/08

Market News
Stocks rose further with the S&P edging ever closer to all-time highs. Trump signed an executive order banning TikTok from operating in the US if not sold from their Chinese parent company, ByteDance. So far, Microsoft is the most likely candidate to buy the video-sharing app’s US operations, which has 100 million users. This has triggered uncertainty for market-leading tech stocks.
Gold prices once again hit new all time highs this week after breaking the $2,000 per ounce level for the first time ever. Bank of America Securities analysts predict further upside potential given the extensive quantitative easing being implemented across the globe. With the U.S Fed targeting aggressive inflation, this further buoys the price forecasts for the precious metal.
Bitcoin broke through its key resistance a week prior to gold. Since the breakout, it set highs of over $12,000 before selling off and finding support. Ethereum reached and tested the $400 level while Ripple also recorded significant gains. Overall there is significant upward momentum with sentiment strongly in favour of the bulls.
The Invictus Margin Lending (IML) Fund had a record breaking week with daily annualized returns peaking at 32.83%. Annualized returns for the week totaled 19.78% as demand for credit increased in parallel with the upward price momentum of the cryptoasset class.
Industry News
Market Indicators
Other News
submitted by Camaa to cryptotwenty [link] [comments]

morning joe

Stocks are set to end the week on a high note after four of the biggest tech stocks - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) - reported quarterly results that beat high expectations. Apple easily exceeded estimates on the top and bottom lines, and announced a four-for-one stock split, sending shares past the $400 threshold in after-hours trading. Amazon's sales soared, and operating income nearly doubled compared with the big drop analysts had expected. Facebook posted 11% revenue growth and issued stronger-than-expected sales guidance for the current quarter. Results from Google's parent were a bit murkier, showing the company's first-ever year-over-year decline in advertising revenue, but sales from its cloud-computing segment came in well above expectations. Big Tech has been Wall Street's mainstay this year, and the latest quarterly results look to accelerate that trend. Amazon and Apple are up 65% and 31%, respectively, in 2020, while Facebook and Alphabet each have gained more than 14% over the period. With all four stocks moving higher in after-hours trading, the tech titans likely will add more than $200 billion to their combined market value.
U.S. economy shrank by a third in Q2
The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product collapsed at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, the steepest decline since the government started keeping records in 1947, as COVID-19 crushed consumer and business spending. Meanwhile, in a sign of a faltering jobs market, the number of workers applying for initial unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, to 1.43 million, after nearly four months of decreases following a late-March peak. The Q2 economic contraction came as states imposed lockdowns in March and April to contain the coronavirus and then lifted restrictions in May and June, allowing growth to resume. Economists expect the third quarter to show growth, but the summer rise in infections likely will temper gains.
Senate fails to advance jobless benefits extension
Meanwhile, no signs of progress are evident in talks between Republicans and Democrats over a new coronavirus relief bill. The U.S. Senate failed yesterday to advance an effort to extend a $200 per week supplement to unemployment insurance benefits. Senate Republicans and the White House had sought to cut the supplement from $600 through September, after which those collecting unemployment benefits would get 70% of their previous wages when combined with state benefits. While much of the focus has been on the expiration of the additional $600-per-week of unemployment benefits, an eviction moratorium is receiving increasing attention as well.
China factory activity expands for fifth straight month
China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in better than expected, rising to 51.1 in July from 50.9 in June for its highest reading since March. July marked the fifth consecutive month that the closely watched measure of China's factory activity topped the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Combined with China's official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index, which indicated a slight deceleration in the service sector, the data suggests China's factories have returned to pre-coronavirus levels but consumer demand remains much weaker, which means inventory is piling up.
Chinese-backed hackers reportedly targeted Moderna for vaccine data
China rejects charges that hackers linked to its government targeted Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) to steal data related to research on a coronavirus vaccine. Citing an unnamed U.S. security official, Reuters reported yesterday that Chinese hackers targeted the U.S. biotech firm earlier this year. Moderna said it had been in contact with the FBI and was made aware of the suspected "information reconnaissance activities" by a hacking group mentioned in last week's Justice Department indictment, where two Chinese nationals were accused of spying on the U.S., including three unnamed U.S.-based targets involved in medical research to fight COVID-19. The two other unnamed medical research companies mentioned in the Justice Department indictment are described as biotech companies based in California and Maryland - descriptions that could fit Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX). Go deeper: J&J (NYSE:JNJ) COVID-19 vaccine candidate shows positive effect in primate study.
Amazon's $10 billion Internet satellite plan wins FCC approval
While overshadowed by the company's earnings, Amazon.com's (AMZN) tech ambitions got a boost as the FCC approved its $10B plan to put thousands of satellites in the sky to provide high-speed Internet to unserved and underserved areas. The company's Project Kuiper - using 3,200 low Earth orbit satellites - would compete in that area with the Starlink project at SpaceX (SPACE).
Australia to force Google, Facebook to pay for news
Australia will become the first country in the world to force Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) to pay publishers for the news content featured on its sites. It will give the companies three months to negotiate fair pay with media businesses there, a move to ensure competition and consumer protection as well as a sustainable media landscape. Other companies are likely to be targeted for similar moves by Australia's government later.
U.K. fraud office charges Airbus subsidiary over Saudi deal
The U.K.'s major economic crimes investigator has charged Airbus' (OTCPK:EADSY) subsidiary GPT Special Project Management and three individuals in connection with a defense contract the country arranged with Saudi Arabia. Airbus says the Serious Fraud Office's investigation related to contractual arrangements that predated its acquisition of the subsidiary. The charges represent a step forward in one of the SFO's most politically sensitive probes, which has been viewed as a potential threat to the U.K.'s relationship with the Saudis. Go deeper: Airbus works to slow cash burn, puts brakes on production.
What else is happening...
Walmart (NYSE:WMT) memo points to cutting jobs in 'streamlining.'
Facebook (FB) finally securing rights to show music videos.
Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) account breach involved phone-based phishing attacks on employees.
Thursday's Key Earnings Apple (AAPL) +6.3% PM on strong earnings, stock split. Amazon (AMZN) +5.5% PM on strong Q2 earnings, Q3 guidance. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) flat PM after soft ad revenue. Facebook (FB) +5.9 PM on strong earnings, user growth. Ford Motor (NYSE:F) +2.5% PM despite seeing weak FY demand. Gilead Sciences (GILD) -3.6% PM as pandemic disrupts earnings. US Steel (NYSE:X) flat PM after Q2 loss, upbeat Q3 guidance. Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) flat PM after Q2 beat, better-than-expected FY guidance. LTC Properties (NYSE:LTC) -3.2% AH as Q2 rental revenue takes a hit. Xilinx (NASDAQ:XLNX) -2.7% PM on in-line Q2, outlook. Stryker (NYSE:SYK) -2.8% AH despite Q2 beat. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) +1% AH on robust Q2 Trikafta sales. OPKO Health (NASDAQ:OPK) -6% PM after healthy Q2 earnings. Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM) -7% PM on FQ4 customer weakness, downside EPS forecast. Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS) -3% AH on pandemic disrupting Q2 revenue. Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) -6% PM after massive Q2 bookings dip. Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN) -2% AH despite Q2 beat. Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE:COG) flat PM after Q2 beat, unchanged guidance. XPO Logistics (NYSE:XPO) -4% AH on weak Q2 shipping metrics. Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) -4.8% AH on Q2 miss, pulled Q3 guidance.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -2.82%. Hong Kong -0.47%. China +0.71%. India -0.26%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.17%. Paris +0.01%. Frankfurt +0.27%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.13%. S&P +0.19%. Nasdaq +0.84%. Crude +0.45% to $40.05. Gold +1.48% to $1,995.90. Bitcoin +1.83% to $11,161. Ten-year Treasury Yield -1.3 bps to 0.53%
Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 Employment Cost Index 9:45 Chicago PMI 10:00 Consumer Sentiment 1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count 3:00 PM Farm Prices
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]

Weekly Wrap 17/07

Market News
Stock performances ended positively this week as the S&P gained 2.33%. Demand for Tesla surged as prices went parabolic, likely in anticipation of the stock to be added to the S&P500. For perspective, since overtaking Toyota as the leading automobile manufacturer in March, Tesla has since added the equivalent of Toyota to its market cap.
Gold prices consolidated earlier this week before a slight dip below the $1,800 level yesterday. Overall sentiment remains bullish, especially with a strong likelihood of another COVID stimulus package being approved by the US congress.
Bitcoin saw a sell-off this week ending 1.57% down. This sell-off came at a bad time for Ethereum, whose investors were optimistic of a break above the $250 level. Nevertheless, altcoins held their ground as Bitcoin’s dominance decreased slightly. With Bitcoin now testing the support of this pivotal range, the market’s next key move is eagerly anticipated. Bitcoin seems to have shrugged off the negative publicity with its association with the “Crypto For Health” Twitter hack and remains above the $9000 level for now.
Industry News
Other News
submitted by Camaa to InvictusCapital [link] [comments]

morning joe

The U.S. State Department has ordered the closure of China's consulate in Houston to protect property and "private information" of Americans as reports came in last night of documents being burned in the compound's courtyard. "We urge the U.S. to immediately withdraw its erroneous decision. Otherwise China will make legitimate and necessary reactions," China's Foreign Ministry declared, as the U.S. dollar surged against the Chinese yuan, breaking the key 7 level. On Tuesday, the DOJ also accused two Chinese hackers of working for the government to steal terabytes of data, including coronavirus research, from Western companies across 11 nations. Go deeper: China may respond by closing the U.S. consulate in Wuhan.
Tensions hit sentiment
S&P 500 futures pulled back 0.4% overnight following the diplomatic flare-up, which adds to concerns over the deteriorating relationship between the economic superpowers. President Trump already dimmed hopes of a Phase 2 trade deal earlier this month, saying the relationship with China had been too badly damaged by COVID-19. Investors are also questioning whether Congress will reach an agreement on the next coronavirus stimulus bill before lawmakers start their summer recess, while Trump warned the pandemic will probably "get worse before it gets better."
Earnings
Two big names are on the radar today as earnings season kicks into high gear. Following a record number of car deliveries earlier in July, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) may report a fourth straight quarterly profit, which could qualify the high-flying stock for inclusion in the S&P 500. Shares have jumped more than 50% this month alone (adding to the stock's more than 3x increase this year), as investors bet on a sudden jump in demand from passive funds that track the benchmark. Don't forget about Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)! Much of the focus will continue to center around its cloud business amid recent trends towards remote work.
Twitter cracks down on 'QAnon' activity
"We've been clear that we will take strong enforcement action on behavior that has the potential to lead to offline harm," the company said via its Twitter Safety account. "In line with this approach, this week we are taking further action on so-called 'QAnon' activity across the service." A Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) spokesperson said more than 7,000 QAnon-related accounts were banned in recent weeks, while the platform limited the distribution of 150,000 others. According to Wikipedia, QAnon is a "far-right conspiracy theory detailing a supposed secret plot by an alleged 'deep state' against U.S. President Donald Trump and his supporters." Last year, the FBI designated QAnon as a potential domestic terror threat.
Abandoning hopes
While U.K. and EU negotiators began the latest round of Brexit negotiations on Monday, the two sides remain deadlocked over fishing rights, level playing field guarantees, governance of the deal and the role of the European Court of Justice. With just days to go until Boris Johnson's deadline for an outline agreement, senior sources told The Telegraph that there is now an assumption that "there won't be a deal." What would happen in that case? The U.K. would leave the bloc on December 31 by following default WTO rules and specific agreements for certain goods. The British government has also abandoned hopes of clinching a U.S. free trade deal ahead of the presidential election in November, with the novel coronavirus outbreak blamed for slow progress.
Record retail trading volumes
Earnings yesterday from some of the biggest publicly traded brokers have highlighted the major jump into retail trading. TD Ameritrade (NASDAQ:AMTD), which is set to be acquired by Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), added a record 661K new funded retail accounts in Q2, surpassing the 608K new accounts during the first quarter. A record 3.4M daily average revenue trades were also noted, more than four times last year's levels and 62% more than the prior quarter. Interactive Brokers (NASDAQ:IBKR), which additionally beat on the top and bottom lines, said its daily average revenue trades increased 111% since the same quarter last year, while customer accounts grew to 867K.
737 MAX may not return until next year
The latest timeline anticipates the FAA won't finish work to lift its March 2019 grounding order until late October or early November because the agency has decided to ask for public comments before finalizing software and hardware changes, WSJ reports. Completing pilot training and maintenance checks is expected to stretch well into December, and only then will the MAX be ready to return to commercial service. That means the jets are expected to be grounded at least as long under current Boeing (NYSE:BA) CEO David Calhoun as under his predecessor, Dennis Muilenburg, who was ousted at the end of 2019 after repeated delays in getting the plane back in the air. BA -1.3% premarket.
Self-driving partnerships
Ending work on autonomous commercial vehicles it began with startup Aurora in 2019, Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU) has selected Waymo as its exclusive, strategic technology partner for "Level 4" fully self-driving technology across its full product portfolio. The collaboration will start with the Ram ProMaster full-size van, though it's likely to expand given Fiat's expected merger with PSA Group into a company called Stellantis. It's been quite a run for the Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) unit. Waymo, considered the leader in autonomous vehicle development, inked another partnership in June with Volvo Cars (OTCPK:GELYY) to develop self-driving electric vehicles designed for ride-hailing.
What else is happening...
Senate committee clears Shelton, Waller for Fed positions.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) pledges to be 100% carbon neutral by 2030.
Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) sales are rebounding as stores reopen.
Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk qualifies for another $2.1B payday.
Jamf (JAMF) prices upsized IPO above range at $26.
Tuesday's Key Earnings Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) +2.3% saying the worst is over. Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) +2.6% topping estimates, raising guidance. Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) +4.2% posting better-than-feared results. Snap (NYSE:SNAP) -6.2% AH on lagging Q2 growth. Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) +1.3% AH following Q2 beats, upside outlook. United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) +1.2% AH expecting to lower cash burn.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong -2.3%. China +0.4%. India -0.2%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.9%. Paris -1.2%. Frankfurt -0.6%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq flat. Crude -1.3% to $41.36. Gold +0.7% to $1856.50. Bitcoin -0.7% to $9351. Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 0.59%
Today's Economic Calendar 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 9:00 FHFA House Price Index 10:00 Existing Home Sales 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories 1:00 PM Results of $17B, 20-Year Bond Auction
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]

Weekly Wrap 17/07

Market News
Stock performances ended positively this week as the S&P gained 2.33%. Demand for Tesla surged as prices went parabolic, likely in anticipation of the stock to be added to the S&P500. For perspective, since overtaking Toyota as the leading automobile manufacturer in March, Tesla has since added the equivalent of Toyota to its market cap.
Gold prices consolidated earlier this week before a slight dip below the $1,800 level yesterday. Overall sentiment remains bullish, especially with a strong likelihood of another COVID stimulus package being approved by the US congress.
Bitcoin saw a sell-off this week ending 1.57% down. This sell-off came at a bad time for Ethereum, whose investors were optimistic of a break above the $250 level. Nevertheless, altcoins held their ground as Bitcoin’s dominance decreased slightly. With Bitcoin now testing the support of this pivotal range, the market’s next key move is eagerly anticipated. Bitcoin seems to have shrugged off the negative publicity with its association with the “Crypto For Health” Twitter hack and remains above the $9000 level for now.
Industry News
Other News
submitted by Camaa to cryptotwenty [link] [comments]

Whales are getting ready for an Ethereum pump and bitcoin will rise up to $10,000. What else are analysts predicting?

Whales are getting ready for an Ethereum pump and bitcoin will rise up to $10,000. What else are analysts predicting?

https://preview.redd.it/cfccryr92tc51.jpg?width=1907&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=072202317f7c54886e0e25d946e0be5c48a72503

Whales are getting ready for an Ethereum pump

Expert at the Santiment analytical service think. They note that investors have transfered 700,000 ETH to exchanges (more than $182 million) for the last three days.
Transfers from addresses in TOP-100 of the largest Ethereum owners have been registered. According to the analysts, it indicates an upcoming pump in the price of the cryptocurrency.
"The top 100 holders of Ethereum are once again beginning to accumulate higher percentages of the total token supply, in spite of the ongoing consolidation that has been occurring for the past couple of weeks. Generally, when this kind of accumulation starts to mount, it's a signal that those who have the most stake in ETH (and other respective tokens) are beginning to have a collective sentiment of the token being undervalued and believe it's a great mid to long-term hold play", Santiment experts write.

Opinion: bitcoin will rise up to $10,000

Analyst Benjamin Blunts supposes that the BTC price will go up to $10,200.
He says that it will already happen at the beginning of August. The trader notes that the price broke through the trend line upwards, tested it downwards and was in the lateral accumulation zone for some time.
Now the bitcoin price is ready to go to the upper border of the lateral range that is located at $10,000-$10,200. Benjamin Blunts points out that it has been squeezed between $8,500-10,200 since the middle of May.

Peter Schiff urged Paul Tudor Jones to sell bitcoins

Euro Pacific Capital head and gold bug Peter Schiff addressed billionaire Paul Tudor Jones.
Not long ago the latter said that he had invested 1-2% of his capital in bitcoin. According to Schiff, it was a mistake and the billionaire made a bet on "the slowest horse".
"It looks like Paul Tudor Jones ended up betting on the slowest horse in the race. In fact, Bitcoin will not even finish the race. If Paul really wants to bet on a faster horse than gold he should move his Bitcoin chips over to silver, or try some gold and silver mining stocks", Schiff wrote in his Twitter account.
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Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement

Cryptocurrency technical analysis: bears drive the crypto market movement
The negative sentiment continues to reign in the crypto asset market, as indicated by technical and fundamental analyzes. Thus, the drop in demand for many top altcoins caused by the bitcoin correction has already led to the fact that the bears have reached many targets located in the support area. At the same time, several interesting events took place on the crypto market over the past working week. On July 15, it became known that the Chinese authorities will test the digital yuan on the largest supplier of groceries and food delivery Meituan Dianping. The work of the Chinese CBDC is already being tested by McDonald’s corporations, Starbucks and DiDi, the largest taxi aggregator in the Middle Kingdom. On June 16, Samsung announced the start of a partnership with Stellar, within which the developments of the blockchain project will be integrated into the Samsung Blockchain Keystore and Samsung Galaxy smartphones. Also, one cannot fail to note the large-scale hacking of the social network Twitter. On the night of July 15–16, unknown attackers gained access to 130 accounts of prominent businessmen, politicians and opinion leaders. As a result, fake Elon Musk, Changpen Zhao, Bill Gates and Barack Obama posted messages calling for bitcoins to be sent to them, which allowed them to collect 12.86 BTC.

Bitcoin

On the four-hour chart, bitcoin develops a very clear movement along the levels from the point of view of technical analysis. After retesting the resistance at $9500 and the lower boundary of the “Triangle” pattern, BTC quotes rushed down to the first target at $9150. If in the coming days the price consolidates below the support level, then in the short term we should expect the development of a downtrend. The closest targets for sellers will be $9000 and $8760 (38.2% correction at Fibonacci levels). At the same time, the persistence of negative sentiment in the stock market will be a signal for the digital currency market, which will continue to fall until the beginning of autumn and the recovery of the business cycle.
In the long term, this may lead to a decline to supports at $8330 and $8050. But in order to push the price lower, the bears will need to exert enormous forces. Moreover, from these levels, whales will begin to gain new positions, which will push the bitcoin price up and launch a medium-term growth trend. It will confirm its departure above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line and the closing of Japanese candlesticks above $9500. In the long term, this will make it possible to achieve medium-term goals in the form of clusters of $9,900- $10,000 and $10,400- $10,500.

BTC / USD chart, four-hour timeframe

So far, the first cryptocurrency also cannot form a global trend, and this has led to the fact that Bitcoin continues to consolidate movement within the $8900 cluster (50% correction at Fibonacci levels) — $9580. BTC quotes have already dropped below the $9,300 level, which could lead to sales up to $8,900. In the future, we should expect Bitcoin to test the targets of $8600 and $8220, where the 200-day moving average (MA) line and the lower border of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its borders are marked in orange).
For a short time, BTC quotes may even drop to supports at $7400 and $6800, but the forecast for the price rebound back up and the formation of a long-term upward trend seems more likely. This will allow Bitcoin to reach the $10,000 and $10,500 levels, and their subsequent breakout will allow the asset to rush to the $11,000, $11,200- $11,300 and $11,800 levels by the end of the year.

BTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Ethereum

The altcoin market is also developing neutral dynamics so far, but more and more signals appear on the charts that speak in favor of the development of a downward movement.
Big capital is not yet ready to acquire digital assets at a price that has grown strongly since March.
Ether price develops along the $233 level (11.4% Fibonacci retracement line) and within the framework of consolidation within the $220- $251 range. The drop in the total demand for digital assets will lead to a decrease in the cost of ether towards the first target in the form of consolidation of $195- $200, where the 200-day MA line is located. The further course of trading will be determined by the appearance or absence of demand for cryptocurrencies. In the long term, by the end of the year, we should expect a move above $251 to the resistance areas of $280, $300 and $320.

ETH / USD chart, daily timeframe

Litecoin

On the daily chart, Litecoin continues to consolidate above the support boundaries in the form of a $40- $42 cluster, which takes the form of the Andrews Pitchfork technical analysis model. The development of the downward dynamics will lead to the fact that the cost of LTC will drop to $36 and $30.60. But in the medium term, we should expect the quotes to move above the 200-period MA line, which passes in the resistance area of $47.45. Overcoming it in the coming months will allow LTC quotes to soar to the levels of $51.50 (38.2% correctional level along the Fibonacci lines), $56.80, $60.80, $65 and $70.

LTC / USD chart, daily timeframe

Bitcoin Cash

The Bitcoin fork began to decline after the breakout and a very clear retest of the lower boundary of the technical analysis model “Triangle” (on the chart below, its boundaries are marked in pink). At the same time, the Bitcoin Cash quotes remain within the framework of a broader consolidation in the form of the “Horizontal Channel” $200- $272. However, the priority trading scenario remains a decline in Bitcoin Cash to the $200 level. There is also a high probability of updating the March lows in the $170 and $150 regions.
However, in the months ahead, expect BCH to move above $272, where the 200-day SMA line passes, paving the way to the $305, $356 and $400 levels.

BCH / USDT chart, daily timeframe

XRP

XRP is also under the influence of bears, leading to a decline towards the resistance level at $0.2050. In the coming weeks, the asset may test the support at $0.18, where the lower border of the Descending Triangle model lies. The development of the downward movement will allow XRP to test the support at $0.16 and $0.1470.
But in the medium term, a signal for a reversal of the downtrend may appear in the event of a break above the 200-day MA line passing at the level of $0.2360. If this happens, then in the second half of 2020 XRP will be able to reach important targets at the levels of $0.2540, $0.27, $0.2860 and $0.30.

XRP / USD chart, daily timeframe

Binance Coin

Binance Coin tried to break the bottom of the Ascending Triangle, but failed. The current quotes are supported by the 200-day SMA line and the boundaries of the $15.30- $16 area. Maintaining the downward momentum will allow BNB to rush down to the supports at $13.80 and $11.50.
But the most likely scenario looks like a final consolidation above the 200-day MA. This will open the way to the current resistances at $17 and $18.14, as well as the first target in the form of a $19.36- $20 cluster. Testing of the $21.30 and $23.50 levels is also expected in the coming months.

BNB / USDT chart, daily timeframe
Now more and more crypto assets are showing a willingness to succumb to bearish pressure, which will send quotes into a short decline that will last over the next few weeks. But by the end of the year, we should expect the activity of whales, which will begin to massively buy cryptocurrencies. This will undoubtedly send their value into a long-term upward rally.
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submitted by Smart_Smell to Robopay [link] [comments]

2020 Will Bring Record Highs for Crypto Assets Despite Pessimism


The emotions in the crypto community are in the range from mild boredom on the positive side to apathy and depression on the other extreme. Despite the gloomy background, I believe 2020 will be one of the best years in the history of crypto assets bringing record highs.
Here are the reasons why…
The broader economy
We live in extraordinary times. Central banks are determined to avoid a recession at all costs by providing liquidity and cutting rates which creates a speculative investment environment. The low interest rate are pumping the valuations of almost any asset class and are also making money managers climb up the risk ladder in search of a meaningful return. Since government bonds don’t yield anything, investors need to buy corporate debt, the ones who previously bought corporate bonds are now into stocks, the stocks loving investors have moved capital to private equity and venture capital etc.
The FED balance sheet jumped $370 billion since September in a new program which is “not QE”. They also cut the rates 3 times this year fighting against a falling stock market and a “potential global slowdown” due to the trade wars and Brexit. As a result we have fresh all time highs in all major US stock indices.
Germany is hovering around a recession, avoiding it technically with a dismal 0.1% growth in the 3rd quarter of 2019. At the same time the DAX index was only 1.3% short of making a new all time high this month.
Even Greece that was on the verge of dropping out of the eurozone four years ago, managed to issue government debt at a negative rate this year.
The cost for avoiding a recession creates a distortion in the valuation of all assets. How do you value anything when interest rates are negative? For great insights on the topic read Howard Marks’ memo on the “mysterious” negative interest rates.
This search for return will drive more people towards riskier asset classes like growth stocks, venture capital and eventually the luring asymmetric bet of crypto assets. "Risk on" state of mind is what crypto needs as the whole asset class (even bitcoin) is perceived as very risky.
US election year
Trump will do anything to keep the stock market and the economy going in 2020. The argument is short but compelling.
He has been very vocal about the new highs and didn’t miss the chance to praise himself for the huge 2019 stock returns. He will likely not do anything that will blow the positive investor sentiment.
This is another tail wind for risk prone investor behaviour in 2020 which will favour crypto assets.
The halving narrative
Bitcoin’s block reward halving is scheduled to occur in mid May 2020. It will bring the daily production from 1800 down to 900 coins per day. This will also cut its annual inflation in half to less than 1.8%. While being twice less powerful than the previous having in 2016, this production cut is still going to influence the price. As a self fulfilling prophecy or a supply-demand result, both previous halvings were followed by an upward price spiral that resulted in a bubble and a blow off top. This is relationship is difficult to ignore and if there is a favourable "risk on” environment in 2020 there is a good chance it will happen again. It may also come faster as investors will try to front run it.
Also, this time we have halving events in the two major forks of bitcoin which did not exist back in 2016 - BCH and BSV. Despite being controversial, they are still among the top 10 largest crypto asset. Their supply cut and potential price rise may help feed the whole “bitcoin halving” narrative and create an upward price spiral for the whole sector.
The latest example of a halving was in litecoin this year and it had a very distinct price effect.
It’s been a while since the last bubble
It’s been exactly 2 years after the top of the previous bubble. Most alts are over 90% down from their all time highs. That is a lot of damage for the speculative investor who came in 2017 and 2018.
Also the lows in most coins were set one year ago and have not been broken down despite prevalent pessimism. This has been a painful environment for anybody looking for a quick buck.
There is also a widespread apathy and pessimism among the crypto community with even hardcore believers changing their forecasts to mediocre 2020.
After 2 years and lots of assets down more than 90% from ATH it seems that most of the coins are held by very strong hands. Therefore downward pressure is limited and if it occurs it would be mainly driven by short term speculators.
Tech development
The hot word of 2016 was “blockchain”. The whole world got excited about it in 2017. 2019 is the year of DeFi.
In case bitcoin gets close to $20 000 again the “late" money will flood once again to smaller crypto assets seeking higher returns. If/when bitcoin’s blocks get full and transactions become expensive the old narrative of “bitcoin doesn’t scale” would become valid again and this would spread money to BCH, BSV, ETH and others.
Another potential narrative that exists today is the “decentralised finance” - exchanges, derivatives, stablecoins, borrowing, lending all that infrastructure got far more sophisticated since the last bubble. Apart from DeFi projects tokens, Ethereum is also poised to be one of the top beneficiaries of this trend as it hosts most of the DeFI activities. However the "Ethereum doesn’t scale" narrative is also valid so a lot of money could spill over to the competition in the smart contract space.
It’s been more than 2 years since the scaling problems became obvious and a lot of projects that specialised in that domain are up and running. Others are at the final stages of being launched. What would be a better test than a real world influx of new users and apps that will try to fill the capacity. The process of finding a proper scaling pathway will be pushed forward in case of another bubble.
Conclusion
That scenario will change in case of a global recession that brings the “risk off” attitude. Then assets will fall into a negative price spiral and investors will be looking to preserve their capital by fleeing to “safer” assets. Although such a recession is inevitable at some point, it seems that central banks have been very good at avoiding it by kicking the can down the road. If they succeed again in 2020, get ready for an explosive crypto year. However, do not assume this run will be the same as 2017. It depends much on the global economy and investors’ risk appetite and it may be cut off earlier and not result in a full blown bubble like the one from 2017. The sensible investor needs to be cautious and plan for the short run in this environment.
submitted by bbelev to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting the stock market", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict stock market" or "predict forex" or "predict bitcoin" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.
Here are the categories:
Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.
Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.
Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.
So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies. Simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.
submitted by chiefkul to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Which rocket will fire first?

Bitcoin vs. Altcoins: Which rocket will fire first?
As always, we present the latest findings and insights in the crypto world every 14 days. About 8 weeks ago, we wrote in our report for the first time in a long time that we assume that the altcoins will make another strong comeback. From today's perspective, we have hit the bull's eye.


The current situation on the market is interesting: It seems that we are in a panic phase in which everyone is looking for the next big Altcoin pump.
Good examples of this are the sometimes irrational rise in Dogecoin's price or the multitude of extremely bullish tweets about some DeFi tokens on Twitter.
In this report we look at the "boring" Bitcoin course and the altcoins.
On the one hand, we ask ourselves how BTC is as digital gold given the fact that gold is on the way to an absolute all-time high.
On the other hand, we want to see if there is any further upside potential for the alts.

The Altcoin casino is in full swing

Two weeks ago we looked at the Bitcoin dominance chart. We were able to identify an upward channel.
A look at the chart below shows that this channel has clearly been broken down.
The Altcoin casino is in full swing and shows how much interest (and longing for big profits) is among many investors.
Let’s finish dominance and take a look at the NASDAQ DeFi Index.
Since September 2019, NASDAQ has listed a DeFi index that tracks MakerDao, Augur, Gnosis, Numerai and 0x. Admittedly, the currently large projects such as COMP, Lend, KNC and SNX are missing.
Here too we can see that the DeFi market (according to the index) has been in the consolidation phase for a few days.
However, if we look at other projects like the ones just mentioned (COMP, LEND, etc.) or Dogecoin, we can see that there is still positive momentum in the Altcoin market.
It is important to understand that you should not be tempted by FOMO.
The entire DeFi market is in a young phase, growth has been high in the last few weeks, and investors should, therefore, expect consolidation before any further growth phase begins.

Bitcoin and altcoins: an overview of on-chain metrics

In contrast to chart analysis, on-chain metrics help us to understand more complex relationships and to identify long-term or sustainable trends.
In this case, we are now looking at a chart that shows us when Bitcoin was last moved:
We can see that the last time that so many BTC were not moved was in January 2016.
This time marked the end of a bear market. Let us be surprised by how the current journey will continue from here.

Ethereum Net Flow: What about the ETH offering on exchanges?

In addition to Bitcoin, we also want to look at Ethereum. We start with a well-known graphic: the netflows from Exchanges.
Here we can see over the period from mid-March that more Ethereum (ETH) flowed from exchanges than to the stock exchanges themselves.
The peak was June, in which around 800,000 ETH more flowed from exchanges than went to them.
Long story short: We see a shortening of the offer on the stock exchange, which is logically bullish for Ethereum.
In summary, we can say that the entire crypto market is currently in good condition. Bitcoin is stable at over $ 9,000 and some altcoins have been picking up speed over the past few weeks. At the same time, BTC dominance decreases, which gives the altcoins further scope. The on-chain metrics fit into this sentiment and make us bullish.
submitted by jakkkmotivator to thecryptobasic [link] [comments]

2020 Will Bring Record Highs for Crypto Assets Despite Pessimism

The emotions in the crypto community are in the range from mild boredom on the positive side to apathy and depression on the other extreme. Despite the gloomy background, I believe 2020 will be one of the best years in the history of crypto assets bringing record highs.
Here are the reasons why…
The broader economy
We live in extraordinary times. Central banks are determined to avoid a recession at all costs by providing liquidity and cutting rates which creates a speculative investment environment. The low interest rate are pumping the valuations of almost any asset class and are also making money managers climb up the risk ladder in search of a meaningful return. Since government bonds don’t yield anything, investors need to buy corporate debt, the ones who previously bought corporate bonds are now into stocks, the stocks loving investors have moved capital to private equity and venture capital etc.
The FED balance sheet jumped $370 billion since September in a new program which is “not QE”. They also cut the rates 3 times this year fighting against a falling stock market and a “potential global slowdown” due to the trade wars and Brexit. As a result we have fresh all time highs in all major US stock indices.
Germany is hovering around a recession, avoiding it technically with a dismal 0.1% growth in the 3rd quarter of 2019. At the same time the DAX index was only 1.3% short of making a new all time high this month.
Even Greece that was on the verge of dropping out of the eurozone four years ago, managed to issue government debt at a negative rate this year.
The cost for avoiding a recession creates a distortion in the valuation of all assets. How do you value anything when interest rates are negative? For great insights on the topic read Howard Marks’ memo on the “mysterious” negative interest rates.
This search for return will drive more people towards riskier asset classes like growth stocks, venture capital and eventually the luring asymmetric bet of crypto assets. "Risk on" state of mind is what crypto needs as the whole asset class (even bitcoin) is perceived as very risky.
US election year
Trump will do anything to keep the stock market and the economy going in 2020. The argument is short but compelling.
He has been very vocal about the new highs and didn’t miss the chance to praise himself for the huge 2019 stock returns. He will likely not do anything that will blow the positive investor sentiment.
This is another tail wind for risk prone investor behaviour in 2020 which will favour crypto assets.
The halving narrative
Bitcoin’s block reward halving is scheduled to occur in mid May 2020. It will bring the daily production from 1800 down to 900 coins per day. This will also cut its annual inflation in half to less than 1.8%. While being twice less powerful than the previous having in 2016, this production cut is still going to influence the price. As a self fulfilling prophecy or a supply-demand result, both previous halvings were followed by an upward price spiral that resulted in a bubble and a blow off top. This is relationship is difficult to ignore and if there is a favourable "risk on” environment in 2020 there is a good chance it will happen again. It may also come faster as investors will try to front run it.
Also, this time we have halving events in the two major forks of bitcoin which did not exist back in 2016 - BCH and BSV. Despite being controversial, they are still among the top 10 largest crypto asset. Their supply cut and potential price rise may help feed the whole “bitcoin halving” narrative and create an upward price spiral for the whole sector.
The latest example of a halving was in litecoin this year and it had a very distinct price effect.
It’s been a while since the last bubble
It’s been exactly 2 years after the top of the previous bubble. Most alts are over 90% down from their all time highs. That is a lot of damage for the speculative investor who came in 2017 and 2018.
Also the lows in most coins were set one year ago and have not been broken down despite prevalent pessimism. This has been a painful environment for anybody looking for a quick buck.
There is also a widespread apathy and pessimism among the crypto community with even hardcore believers changing their forecasts to mediocre 2020.
After 2 years and lots of assets down more than 90% from ATH it seems that most of the coins are held by very strong hands. Therefore downward pressure is limited and if it occurs it would be mainly driven by short term speculators.
Tech development
The hot word of 2016 was “blockchain”. The whole world got excited about it in 2017. 2019 is the year of DeFi.
In case bitcoin gets close to $20 000 again the “late" money will flood once again to smaller crypto assets seeking higher returns. If/when bitcoin’s blocks get full and transactions become expensive the old narrative of “bitcoin doesn’t scale” would become valid again and this would spread money to BCH, BSV, ETH and others.
Another potential narrative that exists today is the “decentralised finance” - exchanges, derivatives, stablecoins, borrowing, lending all that infrastructure got far more sophisticated since the last bubble. Apart from DeFi projects tokens, Ethereum is also poised to be one of the top beneficiaries of this trend as it hosts most of the DeFI activities. However the "Ethereum doesn’t scale" narrative is also valid so a lot of money could spill over to the competition in the smart contract space.
It’s been more than 2 years since the scaling problems became obvious and a lot of projects that specialised in that domain are up and running. Others are at the final stages of being launched. What would be a better test than a real world influx of new users and apps that will try to fill the capacity. The process of finding a proper scaling pathway will be pushed forward in case of another bubble.
Conclusion
That scenario will change in case of a global recession that brings the “risk off” attitude. Then assets will fall into a negative price spiral and investors will be looking to preserve their capital by fleeing to “safer” assets. Although such a recession is inevitable at some point, it seems that central banks have been very good at avoiding it by kicking the can down the road. If they succeed again in 2020, get ready for an explosive crypto year. However, do not assume this run will be the same as 2017. It depends much on the global economy and investors’ risk appetite and it may be cut off earlier and not result in a full blown bubble like the one from 2017. The sensible investor needs to be cautious and plan for the short run in this environment.
submitted by bbelev to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

morning coffee

More Wall Street Breakfast Podcasts » "Despite several issues of importance - national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic - the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. The sentiment led S&P 500 futures to tack on another 0.6% gain overnight as Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed renewed "optimism" about a coronavirus vaccine. On the economic calendar, the ADP Employment Report today will give a fresh read on the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil climbed 2% on anticipated output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
Come on and Zoom!
A surge in video conferencing usage saw revenue growth at Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) jump 169% to $328.2M as the company reported top and bottom line beats for Q1. Zoom also doubled its revenue guidance for the year, pushing up shares as much as 4.5% in AH trading on Tuesday. In keeping with its previous practices, the firm didn't disclose active user numbers, though analysts at Bernstein estimate Zoom's mobile app had 173M monthly active users as of May 27, up from 14M on March 4.
Zuckerberg stands firm after walkout
Facing internal unrest over the company's gentle approach to moderating posts from President Trump, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees he stood behind his decision, one he called "tough" but "pretty thorough." Policies will be reviewed to see if they need to change for the future. Facebook employees particularly took issue with a post by Trump that threatened violence, including the words "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Similar posts on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) were flagged for violating policy.
Apple is tracking looted iPhones
Thieves who made off with iPhones from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail locations in New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Washington and Philadelphia quickly learned that they were loaded with special security software. On-screen messages displayed: "This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted." The social unrest sweeping across the nation comes just as Apple is in the process of opening more than 100 stores following an extended closure due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Digital taxes
The Trump administration is opening a "Section 301" investigation into taxes on digital commerce - proposed by a range of trading partners - that could affect revenues booked by tech giants like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The move could ultimately lead to punitive tariffs and heighten the chances of another global trade dispute. France already agreed to postpone its new digital tax until at least the end of 2020 after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports like French wine, cheese, handbags and porcelain.
Will negative rates be needed?
Many have doubted that the U.S. could go negative like Japan and parts of Europe, but St. Louis Fed economist Yi Wen says that's what it would take to achieve a V-shaped economic recovery. "I found that a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary. Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure." Wen cited historical examples like President Roosevelt's aggressive fiscal stimulus package during the 1930s and huge surge in government spending once World War II began.
Britain news roundup
The Shanghai-London Connect program, years in the making, has so far produced only one listing - Huatai Securities (OTCPK:HUATF) - which raised $1.5B last June. China's market regulator has now approved a fresh listing for China Pacific Insurance (OTCPK:CHPXY), signaling a revival of the program. While the ties could bring the nations closer, other news overnight may go in the other direction. Boris Johnson pledged to let into the country nearly 3M Hong Kong citizens - who are British overseas passport holders - due to China's new national security law, and place them on a possible path to U.K. citizenship.
Drug shortages
One of the most widely prescribed antidepressant medications in the U.S. has fallen into short supply, according to a new list from the FDA. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) said some versions of its name-brand Zoloft, such as 100 milligram tablets in 100-count bottles, were scarce because of higher demand during COVID-19, while generics faced shortages of certain ingredients. Zoloft prescriptions climbed 12% Y/Y to 4.9M in March, the most ever in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but receded to 4.5M in April.
M&A activity
French luxury goods group LVMH’s (OTCPK:LVMHF) $16.2B takeover of Tiffany & Co (NYSE:TIF) is looking less certain, according to Women's Wear Daily. It's the latest big merger said to be on the rocks amid a deteriorating situation in the U.S. market brought on by a COVID-19 pandemic and severe social unrest. Further challenges include spending pattern shifts, the collapse of international tourism and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
'Biggest Sale in the Sky'
After postponing its annual Prime Day event due to COVID-19, Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly setting up a "summer sale" for June to boost sellers hurt by the outbreak and swimming in inventory. The company told brands it would launch a fashion sale June 22, to run anywhere from 7-10 days, and that participation in the event was "invitation only." It's building landing pages with a working title "Biggest Sale in the Sky," and has asked brands to meet an end-of-Wednesday deadline to submit deals with a discount of at least 30%.
What else is happening...
Sports betting to the rescue in California?
Twitter (TWTR) names Pichette as new independent chairman.
Google (GOOG, GOOGL) faces $5B lawsuit over 'private' internet use.
FAA boss to testify at Senate hearing on 737 MAX (NYSE:BA).
Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) trims loss forecast after May rides jumped 26%.
Tuesday's Key Earnings Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) -3.7% AH on light revenue guidance. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) +6.2% AH following a beat-and-raise. DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +3.7% as e-commerce sales rose 110%. Zoom Video (ZM) +1.4% AH posting Q1 beat, aggressive outlook.
Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.1%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +2.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.7% to $37.43. Gold -0.6% to $1724.40. Bitcoin -5.6% to $9527. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.71%
Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Factory Orders
submitted by upbstock to Optionmillionaires [link] [comments]

I've reproduced 130+ research papers about "predicting bitcoin", coded them from scratch and recorded the results. Here's what I've learnt.

ok, so firstly,
all of the papers I found through Google search and Google scholar. Google scholar doesn't actually have every research paper so you need to use both together to find them all. They were all found by using phrases like "predict bitcoin" or "predict stock market" or "predict forex" and terms related to those.

Next,
I only tested papers written in the past 8 years or so, I think anything older is just going to be heavily Alpha-mined so we can probably just ignore those ones altogether.

Then,
Anything where it's slightly ambiguous with methodology, I tried every possible permutation to try and capture what the authors may have meant. For example, one paper adds engineered features to the price then says "then we ran the data through our model" - it's not clear if it means the original data or the engineered data, so I tried both ways. This happens more than you'd think!

THEN,
Anything that didn't work, I tried my own ideas with the data they were using or substituted one of their models with others that I knew of.

Now before we go any further, I should caveat that I was a profitable trader at multiple Tier-1 US banks so I can say with confidence that I made a decent attempt of building whatever the author was trying to get at.

Oh, and one more thing. All of this work took about 7 months in total.

Right, let's jump in.

So with the papers, I found as many as I could, then I read through them and put them in categories and then tested each category at a time because a lot of papers were kinda saying the same things.

Here are the categories:

Results:
Literally every single paper was either p-hacked, overfit, or a subsample of favourable data was selected (I guess ultimately they're all the same thing but still) OR a few may have had a smidge of Alpha but as soon as you add transaction costs it all disappears.

Every author that's been publicly challenged about the results of their paper says it's stopped working due to "Alpha decay" because they made their methodology public. The easiest way to test whether it was truly Alpha decay or just overfitting by the authors is just to reproduce the paper then go further back in time instead of further forwards. For the papers that I could reproduce, all of them failed regardless of whether you go back or forwards. :)

Now, results from the two most popular categories were:

The most frustrating paper:
I have true hate for the authors of this paper: "A deep learning framework for financial time series using stacked autoencoders and long-short term memory". Probably the most complex AND vague in terms of methodology and after weeks trying to reproduce their results (and failing) I figured out that they were leaking future data into their training set (this also happens more than you'd think).

The two positive take-aways that I did find from all of this research are:
  1. Almost every instrument is mean-reverting on short timelines and trending on longer timelines. This has held true across most of the data that I tested. Putting this information into a strategy would be rather easy and straightforward (although you have no guarantee that it'll continue to work in future).
  2. When we were in the depths of the great recession, almost every signal was bearish (seeking alpha contributors, news, google trends). If this holds in the next recession, just using this data alone would give you a strategy that vastly outperforms the index across long time periods.

Hopefully if anyone is getting into this space this will save you an absolute tonne of time and effort.

So in conclusion, if you're building trading strategies, simple is good :)

Also one other thing I'd like to add, even the Godfather of value investing, the late Benjamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) used to test his strategies (even though he'd be trading manually) so literally every investor needs to backtest regardless of if you're day-trading or long-term investing or building trading algorithms.


EDIT: in case anyone wants to read more from me I occasionally write on medium (even though I'm not a good writer)
submitted by chiefkul to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history

From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours.
Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors.
First plunge
The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock.
At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion.
During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions.
For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000.
For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse.
Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet.
"Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp".
In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born.
As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market.
From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend.
Second plunge
On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history.
The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000.
For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. .
"Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up.
Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin.
Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon.
But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40.
It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market.
Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. "
In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime.
Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero.
If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry.
"BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. "
Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect.
According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio .
Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner.
According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out.
However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation.
In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up.
After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

Komodo's 2.0 Infographic Contest: 5,000 KMD Grand Prize!

Komodo's 2.0 Infographic Contest: 5,000 KMD Grand Prize!

https://preview.redd.it/0yq7rwnkjdq11.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=950dd49d7e1f7f1e421f7074bd030aec064e6ac7
A total prize pool of 7,000 KMD in our infographic contest
Calling all creatives to take part in our infographic contest and compete for a prize of 7,000 KMD. The winning infographic will explain the architecture of Komodo Platform’s technology. Winners will be those who are able to communicate our architecture and tech visually. This contest will run primarily on Reddit, with the exception of resources being posted to Medium and a master twitter thread for submissions on Twitter. You'll find links at the bottom of this post.

Prizes for winning infographics.

Are you a creative designer? Here's what you can win…
  1. A grand prize of 5,000 KMD
  2. Two runner-up prizes of 500 KMD each
  3. Two third-place prizes of 250 KMD each

Prizes for sharing and giving feedback!

Not a designer? That's OK. You can still participate and win! We'll award five lucky winners 100 KMD each for sharing and promoting the contest. Winners will be picked in a raffle. If you'd like to take part click here https://gleam.io/MwMtO/komodos-20-infographic-contest-5000-kmd-grand-prize and share this post with your friends.

Your Goals

  • Create a high-quality infographic that illustrates the genesis of our platform, the working tech that has been created and how Komodo has been built differently, and deliberately, from the very beginning to ensure security, scalability and interoperability. This is why we refer to the architecture, because Komodo was designed to overcome common problems like congestion, governance and attacks that other platforms did not foresee or prevent, from the beginning. This is Komodo DNA.
  • Share your submission far and wide and encourage your friends and followers to vote for you.
  • Encourage feedback, ask questions and make your infographic the best that it can be.

Our Criteria to Judge

Please note that upvotes and shares are not the only criteria we'll use to judge winners. While useful, we will value creativity, good questions and discussion on Reddit highly. When sharing your posts you will score more highly if people comment, provide feedback and are engaged.
  • How well the infographic conveys our working tech, it's core concepts and plans to build on top of it.
  • How well the infographic illustrates our story, purpose and conveys our tech so that it's easy to understand.
  • Constructive discussion, questions and feedback on Reddit that lead to improvement.
  • Sentiment and comments generated across all our social media. This will not include vanity metrics like likes or shares.
  • Upvotes on Reddit for the author's submission post ONLY. All votes will be counted (i.e. doesn't matter which week they were made).
  • Retweets of the submission in our master thread ONLY. Include your handle and a cover image in your submission. This means if you promote yourself on Twitter you ought to promote the tweet with your work in it.

How do you win?

You may submit up to two infographics. By submitting an infographic, you understand Komodo may post and use your submissions on our digital channels during and after the contest. Each infographic must have it's own post.
  • Create a post on Komodo's subreddit using the 'infographic contest' flair.
  • Add the infographic image into the Reddit post.
  • Include your Twitter handle.
  • Include a social media friendly cover image for us to use when we tweet your submission out.
  • Post a link to your submission post here in the comments for all to see.

Contest Timeline Guide (these dates indicative and are subject to change).

  • 7th September. Announcement. If you're reading this on Reddit before the big announcement then well done! You have two extra days before this is announced on Friday.
  • 10th - 21st September. Research and Questions. We will promote the contest, invite questions and requests for resources, in the comments of this master Reddit post (because this means all information and good questions will be visible to all participants).
  • 22nd September. Draft Submissions. Creatives to submit their draft infographics on Reddit. All submissions need to have their own post and then be linked to in the comments of this master post. This is important to remember!
  • 24th - 30th September. Feedback. A period of one week will be devoted to promoting the submissions and asking the community and team to give you feedback.
  • 1st October. Final Submissions.
  • 2nd - 8th October. Voting. A week of promoting your work and at the end we'll count votes, consider feedback and pick our winners.
  • 15th October. Winners Declared. The final decision by judges. Votes and community feedback counts towards judging but do not have final say.

Resources

If you need help please post in this thread, or email [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) with ‘Infographic Contest’ in the subject line.
  1. A list of resources for the Komodo infographic contest including tools to create infographics.
  2. Komodo Platform: Redefining The Architecture Of Blockchain Platforms
  3. A bullet point study aid to help you understand the history of Komodo’s architecture.
  4. Logo Pack https://komodoplatform.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Komodo-Logo-Pack.zip
  5. Mylo's notes on Software & Platform Architecture for Designers in the Infographic Contest
  6. Mylo's Conceptual Model of Architecture
  7. Video: A brief history of our working tech and an animated timeline of the Komodo Platform.
  8. Video: Komodo Atomic Swaps Explained.
Also please let us know if you are, or you know, a good GUI developer because we'd love to hear from them. Ask them to DM ca333#0118 or SHossain#8093 on Discord.

Entries and submissions for the infographic contest. You can click here to see them all in a scrollable thread on Twitter.

25/09/18 - First Round of Feedback

Infographics should use graphical design elements to visually represent the Komodo Architecture Story found here: https://komodoplatform.com/komodo-platform-a-brief-overview/ included in our ‘required reading’. There’s also a bullet point aid: https://medium.com/@benohanlon/bullet-point-aid-to-help-you-the-history-of-komodos-architecture-dced35b29965 you may find useful.
  • We want to stress that the infographic ought to focus on the Architecture story. In the first round we've found many have focused on the five pillars which is a part of it but not the focus.
  • Copy should be short and concise and not dominate the infographic. The idea is to simplify the story and not to copy and paste directly from the story.
  • Colour Palette - avoid heavy usage of the old KMD green and yellow-orange. Would prefer usage of the interim KMD colour palette.
  • Recommended fonts: Montseratt, Roboto, Open Sans, Helvetica, or Arial.
  • Graphical - Imagery should complement the associated copy. Diagrams are encouraged in place of simple icons to explain more complex technology concepts.
  • Interim KMD colour palette
Interim KMD Colour Palette
If you’ve not been included in the first round it’s because the submission hadn’t been made when the team reviewed. Don’t worry though because we’re organising hangouts and further feedback to help.
  • #001 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by thesudio. There’s a lot of good points made, however, these would work better if there is a clear narrative and flow to the information being presented. Otherwise, it can be overwhelming and confusing to the reader. The #1 objective is to visually depict the architecture story and how KMD is redefining blockchain platform architecture.
  • #002 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by thesudio. We like that there is a clear structure and clear messaging aligned to each of the 5 pillars. However, the infographic should be focused on telling the architecture story vs the pillars.
  • #003 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by VolsenVols. Love how you’ve incorporated our existing graphic design elements into the infographic. This is heading in the right direction and the level of copy and content are well balanced. It would be nice to align this closer to the architecture story and to expand on the different layers of our technology using the same style.
  • #004 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by dexter_laabo. Needs to tell the architecture story. This looks more like it took information from our current website. “Anonymous” is not a key aspect of our technology that we’re focusing on.
  • #005 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by savandra. The visuals are strong but the narrative could be stronger. It would be nice to align this closer to the architecture story and to expand on the different layers of our technology using the same style.
  • #006 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by VolsenVols. Team prefers the other submission style in entry #003.
  • #007 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by cryptol1. Doesn’t depict the architecture narrative. Inaccurately describes cross-chain tech as “proprietary”. Simplification has the wrong messaging associated, should be white-label focused. This is considered more of a graphics versus an infographic. Needs to be more comprehensive.
  • #008 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by pacosenda. We like the unique design style and approach taken. Doesn’t follow the architecture narrative. Should be expanded out as it is a bit short on content with no clear flow or narrative.
  • #009 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by jeanetteLine. Great level of detail and thought on the layout and content. Doesn’t, however, cover the architecture story. Would be preferred if the design direction reflects interim colour and style vs. legacy KMD. The roadmap should be avoided. Looks like they borrowed more from the website than the guidelines.
  • #010 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by Meyse. Very creative way to explain and layout the content. This could be expanded out more to encompass the entire architecture story. Cross-chain verifications/smart contracts, blockchain bridging need to be incorporated in.
  • #011 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by Brenny431. Follows the 5 pillars versus the architecture story. Would prefer stronger visuals and design elements.
  • #012 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by ProofDraw. Design elements are good but need to follow architecture story versus 5 pillars.
  • #013 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by sayonara_girl. Needs to follow the architecture story.
  • #014 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by Limiter02. Good thought has gone into the copy, however, there’s way too much of it. Would prefer stronger visuals and utilizing a more visual storytelling approach. Doesn’t follow the architecture story. Remove the lizard.
  • #015 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by piptothemoon. Great thought into visually representing key points. Needs to be expanded out to incorporate the architecture story, but this is heading in the right direction from a visual storytelling POV.
  • #016 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by thecryptofoundation. Love the timeline approach, and mostly followed the guidelines and architecture story. Also, like the incorporation of accomplishments at the end. Would like to get the stock imagery used to reflect our interim colour palette. Not all visuals match what is being represented in the copy.
  • #017 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by jsteneros. As discussed in the Zoom call, this graphic is really solid but a little heavy on the copy. Would be good to see more visualizations of the info. This graphic hits on some of the important messages (e.g. Komodo is built differently from other blockchain platforms and solves many of the issues that first-gen platforms are struggling with) but it would be great if there was more information about Komodo’s architecture and how Komodo is different from other platforms.
  • #018 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by gravigocrypto. This one was also discussed in the Zoom call. Outstanding visuals and overall design. The info follows the architecture story well but could be stronger if the 3 layers of Komodo’s architecture were tied together into one, coherent visual. It’s a challenging task but that’s part of the contest : )
  • #019 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by PacoSenda. This is a really creative infographic, which is great! However, we’d really like to see the visuals a bit more in line with fonts and color palette described above in the “First Round of Feedback” section. Also, as with the feedback for many of the infographic submissions, sticking to the Komodo architecture story would be best.
  • #020 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by emmanmalaman. The visuals are pretty cool but this one misses most of our core messaging. It would be much stronger if it followed the architecture story and touched on the info provided in this post. There’s definitely potential here but it needs some work.
  • #021 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by immimidada. The colors and visuals here are spot-on. It’s also really great that it sets up the problem and then presents the Komodo solution. However, the problem and solution aren’t defined exactly the way we’d like. Check out the architecture narrative to learn more, and try to follow that story a bit more closely.
  • #022 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by mohitgfx3. This one is a bit heavy on the KMD logos. We’re really hoping to see a visualization of Komodo’s infrastructure architecture. As with the feedback for many of the infographics, it would be best to re-read Komodo’s architecture story and try to stick to that as much as possible. Using images from the current website is also not a great approach, as we’re preparing to launch a new site in the coming months.
  • #023 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by u/sayonara_girl. Some of the visuals are cool! It’s missing the narrative we’re looking for. In general, less copy and more visual storytelling would improve this graphic a lot. We’d like to see a smooth, linear flow of information. Take another look at the architecture story and try to follow that narrative.
  • #024 Infographic Link // Reddit Post Link by brunopugens. This one follows the narrative well! But it’s a little heavy on the copy. It would be much stronger if the architecture was displayed visually, rather than explained with text. Also, the design is cool but it’s difficult to read b/c the perspective of the text is skewed. It’s a really cool idea but might be better to put the text flat for the sake of readability and clarity.

We hosted a round of live feedback sessions via Zoom. The recording is here:

https://soundcloud.com/blockchainists/zoom-call-first-round-of-feedback-for-komodos-infographic-contest#t=3:50

Timeline

The first block in the KMD blockchain was mined just under two years ago, on September 13, 2016 to 9:04 PM. Since then, Komodo has demonstrated a commitment to innovation and established a history of execution.
  • February 21, 2016 — The vision for Komodo Platform is born with jl777’s Declaration of Independence.
  • September 13, 2016 — The first block in the KMD chain is mined.
  • October 15, 2016 — Komodo’s initial coin offering (ICO) is launched.
  • November 20, 2016 — Komodo’s ICO comes to a close with a total of 2,639 BTC raised.
  • January 2017 — The Komodo Mainnet is launched, complete with independent assetchains and delayed Proof of Work security.
  • January 31, 2017 — The KMD coins purchased in the ICO are issued.
  • March 2017 — Komodo’s development team develops one of the first atomic swap protocols.
  • July 2017 — Thousands of atomic swaps are made in a public, observable setting.
  • August 2017 — Private, zero-knowledge trades made possible with Jumblr, Komodo’s native shuffler.
  • October 2017 — Komodo develops a way to make atomic swaps in SPV Mode (“Lite Mode”), thus eliminating the need for traders to download entire blockchains to do atomic swaps.
  • November 2017 — First GUI for Komodo’s atomic-swap-powered decentralized exchange (DEX) is released, making atomic swap trading more accessible than ever before.
  • January 2018 — The mobile version of Agama wallet is released.
  • February 2018 — A public stress test allows 13,900 atomic swaps in a 48 hour period.
  • March 2018Komodo bridges the gap between Bitcoin-protocol-based coins and Ethereum-based ERC-20 tokens, providing support for 95% of coins and tokens in existence.
  • March 2018 — Komodo holds its second annual Notary Node Elections.
  • May 2018 — The world’s first decentralized ICO is held on Komodo Platform.
  • June 2018 — The alpha release of HyperDEX, a new GUI for Komodo’s decentralized exchange, is launched.
  • July 2018 — Komodo enters a partnership with Netcoins, making KMD coins available for purchase with fiat currencies at over 21,000 locations across three continents.
  • July 2018 — Komodo announces the 5 Pillars of Blockchain technology and begins introducing some Komodo 2.0 technology features, like Federated Multi-Chain Syncing and Cross-Chain Smart Contracts.
  • August 2018 — Komodo takes two big steps towards mass adoption, announces a collaboration with Ideas By Nature, an industry-leading blockchain agency, and releases a full briefing on the development on UTXO-based smart contracts.

Achievements

  • Cryptomiso.com is a website that ranks 866 different blockchain projects according to the Github commit history of that project’s most popular repo. Komodo is ranked #1 overall for Github commits over the last 12 months.
  • China's Ministry Research Initiative regularly ranks Komodo in the top 10.
  • Binance CEO highlights Komodo (see this Five Bullet Friday edition for more info).

If you would like to update your post, please edit and add to the post so people can see the different iterations. Entries and submissions for the infographic contest. You can click here to see them all in a scrollable thread on Twitter.

submitted by benohanlon to komodoplatform [link] [comments]

Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Reading Bitcoin Sentiment  Long vs Short Positions - YouTube [See Description] Trading Logic with Sentiment Analysis Signals - Python for Finance 10 Outperfom Bitcoin by 200% through Social Media Sentiment Trading?! Possible?! Predicting Market Movement with Twitter Sentiment Bitcoin Price Prediction using Sentiment Analysis

Twitter or rather Twitter sentiment analysis can potentially act as an instrument to be able to determine trade patterns and Bitcoin price prediction. This social media platform could thereby provide information indicative of users’ emotions and feelings. Today the Fear & Greed index on crypto is neutral, indicating that Bitcoin sentiment is perhaps not that positive, despite the good news on BTC. Although BTC's price is rising and the predictions of large traders are positive, the Fear & Greed index does not reflect this data . Buy crypto; Blockchain. All; Regulation; Security; Events; Interview. 21 heads: Brock Pierce featured in a new NFT ... Bitcoin Sentiment AI Machine Learning Twitter. With sentiment continuing to be a significant factor in the price and momentum of digital assets, Brave New Coin has launched a weekly Bitcoin ... Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment analysis tools can be powerful. Used correctly, they can allow traders and investors to gauge whether crypto markets (and their participants) are feeling bullish or bearish. So, with some claiming that the market ... New Zealand-based blockchain data and research firm Brave New Coin (BNC) has launched a new metric for bitcoin. Dubbed “Twitter Sentiment,” the metric analyzes over 34 million bitcoin-related ...

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Reading Bitcoin Sentiment Long vs Short Positions - YouTube

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